The Structural Model of Dynamics of Political Loyalty of Yerevan Population

Abstract

Recently the general background of political processes in Armenia is the low loyalty in Armenian society to the country's political course and the low level of trust in the party system. The article presents a model of the dynamics of general loyalty of the population, in particular loyalty to the country's political course among the population of Yerevan. The model is based on data from a representative sociological survey conducted in Yerevan in November 2022. We construct the model by the structural equation modeling method. It represents the direction and the force of various factors that influence the level of loyalty of the population. In the model the factor “Loyalty” represents the acceptability of the country’s political course, trust in the political leaders, and trust in the State officials. The model shows that the factor “Revolution” determining the level of acceptability of the "velvet revolution" 2018 and the level of realization of expectations from the revolution, has the maximum influence on the level of “Loyalty”. The relative strength of the factor is 0.51. The higher the realization of expectations, the higher the level of “Loyalty” all other things being equal. The second is the factor “Economy” which determines the positive perceptions of the country's economic state, positive changes over the past year, and positive expectations for the future. The relative strength of the factor is 0.22. The higher the value of the factor, the higher the “Loyalty” all other things being equal. The third is the factor “War” which determines the society’s estimates of missed opportunities during the 44-day war, including the possibility to prevent the war, the possibility to reduce the losses from military defeat, and the possibility to win the war. The relative strength of the factor is -0.16. The more acutely society perceives missed opportunities, the lower the “Loyalty” other things being equal. These factors explain 48% of the variance in “Loyalty”. The results of the analysis of the model and its complete structure can serve as a scientific basis for strategic planning and management in the field of problems related to the political loyalty of the population.